Modeling the Impact of Wind Intensification on Antarctic Sea Ice Volume

A global sea ice–ocean model is used to examine the impact of wind intensification on Antarctic sea ice volume. Based on the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data, there are increases in surface wind speed (0.13%yr) and convergence (0.66%yr) over the ice-covered areas of the SouthernOcean during the period 1979–2010. Driven by the intensifying winds, the model simulates an increase in sea ice speed, convergence, and shear deformation rate, which produces an increase in ridge ice production in the SouthernOcean (1.1%yr). The increased ridged ice production is mostly in theWeddell, Bellingshausen, Amundsen, andRoss Seas where an increase in wind convergence dominates. The increase in ridging production contributes to an increase in the volume of thick ice (thickness. 2 m) in the Southern Ocean, while the volumes of thin ice (thickness# 1 m) and medium thick ice (1 m, thickness# 2 m) remain unchanged over the period 1979–2010. The increase in thick ice leads to an increase in ice volume in the Southern Ocean, particularly in the southern Weddell Sea where a significant increase in ice concentration is observed. The simulated increase in either the thick ice volume (0.91%yr) or total ice volume (0.46%yr) is significantly greater than other ice parameters (simulated or observed) such as ice extent (0.14–0.21%yr) or ice area fraction (0.24%–0.28%yr), suggesting that ice volume is a potentially strong measure of change.